John Fredericks NFL Picks Week 16: Bills, Ravens on the Ropes


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Lines by Draft Kings as 12-24 2:00 PM

Merry Christmas! In the infamous words of Gordon Gecco, “Money never sleeps!” Plus we have two Christmas Day games to bet on! Screw the CCP loving lib-tards who run the NBA! We have NFL football on Christmas! I had a topsy-turvey roller-coaster week 15: Red hot in early games, smoked like a cheap Saturday night cigar on late games, then came roaring back with the snake eyes deuce on Tuesday. Overall I went 8-6 ATS, bringing my season record to 76-55-2 ATS. That’s 22 games over .500. My season pre-playoff goal is 25 games over .500. I am within striking distance this week.

If you bet $100 on each of my picks since week-one, you would be +$1,550, when accounting for the vigorish. Not bad after picking 133 games ATS. I would put that up against any wise guy tout in Vegas. Ever notice how the Vegas handicappers never, ever post their actual games? They will brag about a record, but their picks week in and week out are never posted. Mine are always up for review. Hmmm…

By the way my son Jack’s High School basketball team went 1-1 in their Christmas tournament, winning the first game in a thriller then dropping the championship in a tough loss. I love his team, and they are very well coached. And I’m not saying that because the coach is my son. I told him they’d get better with executing their offense every week and he’d win the states. They are a gutsy, fearless bunch – not much height but very quick and physical. And well disciplined. Stay tuned.


Talk is cheap. Yesterday is a cancelled check. Tomorrow is a promissory note. Today is ready cash.

With the phony Omni-con Covid-19 NFL protocol nonsense allowing Roger Goodell and his NFL corporate suit flunkies to virtue signal to their woke sponsors, check the status of key players who might test positive on game-day. It may shift the line or the game’s outcome.

One of several big showdowns in Week 16 kicks off Saturday night in the desert, with the red-hot Colts coming into Phoenix to face a slumping and reeling Cardinals bunch. The Colts opened at +1.5 doggies on the road. It’s stayed there.

So here we go with Week 16

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Browns at Green Bay (-7.5)

The constant drama that goes on in Cleveland is suffocating this franchise. The Browns, expected to be an AFC championship caliber contender in August, are now the 12th playoff seed, five from the last number seven spot. Their playoff chances dwindling, they have to fly to Lambeau and deal with an insane Aaron Rodgers on Saturday. Merry freaking Christmas. What’s next, a root canal on New Year’s Day? This game will knock Mayfield and his band of cry-baby undisciplined losers out of the playoffs, putting all of us out our collective misery.
Pick: Reindeer Pack -7.5


Colts at Cards (-1.5)

NFL gambling rule #1: BAP (Bet Against the Public). Everybody and their brother is picking the Colts on the road. Even your in-laws. First, they are 5-1 ATS on the road this season. The Cards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. The Colts are on fire, winners of five of their last six, and they should have beaten the Bucs for six in row. The entire U.S. sports media has been fawning like a smitten school girl over the Colts since Andrew Luck hit town. The Cardinals are spinning in the opposite direction, going 3-4 and losing last week to the lowly Lions after firing out of the gate at 7-0.

Then there is Jonathan Taylor. He’s going to be league MVP.

With the Cards collapsing and the Colts streaking-we should bet Indy like everybody else, right? Really? Why didn’t the Vegas line move down then? Because smart money went to Arizona. Public bettors went to Indianapolis. Sports books never go broke. The public does. I love the nutbag Cards at home on Christmas night with that shortstop slinging the ball sidearm like he’s completing a double play. #BAP. Cards won’t lose three straight. Pick- Kyler Murray and the Cards Show -1.5


Lions at Dirty Birds (-6.5)

As dismal as the ACS (Atlanta Clown Show) has played this year, they have a quarterback playing at home and the Kittens have Jared Goff sitting at home feeling fine, wondering what possessed him to take that silly Covid test with no symptoms. Dumb move. Pick: ACS -6.5


Giants at Eagles (-10)

The woeful Giants just put their once heralded QB Daniel Jones out to pasture. Jints brass said they “shut him down for the season.” LMAO! Interpretation: “You suck, we suck, we need a high draft pick and you ain’t it, dude.” Then Jones goes to their hapless and embattled head coach (quick, can you name him? No? Thought so) Joe Judge and says he needs to be the guaranteed starter — or trade him. He’s won four games! Trade him to who? Edmonton? What a buffoon-fest in New Jersey. Meanwhile, the Eagles have scrapped and clawed their way back in the playoff race. One more loss by the Vikes and they gain the upper hand. The Giants have checked out of Hotel Hell while the Eagles believe. Pick: Eagles -10


Rams (-3.5) at Vikings

So Minnesota gives up more yards on the ground per game (257) than Joe Manchin goes on TV per week. The Vikes have gone from Purple People Eaters to Purple Puke on Turf. You just can’t trust this team to compete with a top-level run game. Plus Delvin Cook, Minny’s leading rusher is out due to the scam-demic protocols. That puts more pressure on Kirk Cousins. Not a good scenario for a declining team. Rams are for real. Pick: Rams -3.5


Bills at Pats (-2)

The Pats beat Buffalo a few weeks ago in upstate New York with 40 MPH wind gusts. They threw the football three times in one of the most bizarre games I ever saw. Three passes and they won. Sean McDermott was schooled by Billy B like a third grade nerd in T-ball. Yet McDermott popped off after the game and begrudged giving Belichick any credit. Does any of this matter? No. Here’s what matters: it’s tough to win two games over your conference rival when both teams are evenly matched. Also, here are the Pats nine wins: Jets, Texans, Jets, Chargers (really good win), Panthers, Browns, Falcons, Titans (had half a team) Bills (bizarre game). So three wins over teams with a winning record and one (Tennessee) had no players and turned the ball over five times. Last week they got smoked early by Indy only to creep back in late when the hated prevent defense showed up. This is a revenge game for Buffalo. New England has to prove they can beat a really good team twice. This isn’t the New York Jets. Pick: Buffaloes +2


Champa Bay (-9.5) over Cats

Too many players out for Tampa to lay this spread. The Panthers are a train wreck. I’ll pass. No Pick


Jags at Jets (-1.5)

Ok, I love the Jets here, at home in a meaningless game. They’ll be having fun while the sad-sack Jags just want this odyssey of a doomed season to end. It’s like nightmare on the Saint Johns River. They want to go home. This is the revenge of the Christmas ghost of Jimmy Hoffa, who is buried under the Jets logo. Zach Wilson is the future of the perennial dumpster fire. What does it take to get lower than the Jets? Urban Meyer.


Bolts (-10) at Texans

Remember my mantra: don’t over-think it. This is simple: Chargers playing their guts out for a division title. Texans playing for a high draft card. Lay the wood, get an egg-nog, spike it with some decent bourbon, check back in the fourth quarter. Pick: Bolts -10


Ravens at Bungles (-4.5)

Wow. The Bungles playing for the division lead at home. Joey Burrow says the Bungles have no Covid issues because Cincinnati is a dead town for young people with no nightlife. He says he goes to Applebees for a night on the town. Burrow torched the Ravens secondary in their first meeting for 417 (!) and Baltimore had no answers for Ja’Mar Chase and company. So when in doubt: #BAP. Get this: the game opened at 2.5 and got bet up to 4.5 by you know who: the public. This is a trap game at 4.5 points. The Ravens are 11-2 ATS in December under Harbaugh. It’s Ravens time. This is likely to be a close game and I’ll take the juice. I covered last weeks game on a last minute TD. Will Harbaugh go for two again to win it? Yes. Like the Pats-Bills game, its tough for division rivals to sweep when both teams are somewhat evenly matched. Also, since 2019 the Ravens are 8-1 ATS against winning teams on the road. They rise to the occasion. Take the points and enjoy the game. Somebody wins by three. Pick: Ravens +4.5


Bears At Seahawks (-6.5)

OMG, please enjoy your family. Or take a nap with comfy My Pillow. Go to and get up to 67 percent off with promo code Godzilla! Anything beats watching this snooze fest. Who cares? Good Lord, get a life. If you are betting this game call gamblers anonymous now. You’re morphing into degenerate status. No Pick


Broncos (-1) at Raiders

Look, I’m betting Vegas at home the day after Christmas. Denver proved they are smoke and mirrors with no offense last week at home getting choked out by the Bungles. With Teddy Bridgewater ruled out, we have another untested QB (Drew Lock) in a big game going on the road against a legit playoff team. I just don’t see it. Denver is another phony team posting five of their seven wins against losing teams (Giants, Jags, Jets, WFT, Lions). The party’s over in Denver–management knew they were going nowhere when they shipped Von Miller to L.A. Pick: Vegas Slot machines +1


Steelers at Chiefs (-8.5)

How on earth does this Steeler team win these games? Their win over the Titans last week was unreal. They looked like they were getting blown out, then they turn their season around in the second half. KC is rolling now, winners of seven in a row and they look invincible yet once again. All trends point to the Chiefs-except one: The Steelers won’t go away. They look old, stale, tedious and slow. They never get explosive plays. They are plodding and boring. They have no run game. Big Ben is on his last legs. Blah, blah, blah. This is December, and Pittsburgh is like a cornered rat, fighting for it’s life. They will be physical. They will be intense. This will be a very close game and I’ll take the juice. It’s got upset written all over it. Pick: Steel Curtain + 8.5


WFT at Cowboys (-10.5)

Poor WFT. Just when they made it fun they got hit with injuries and phony protocols and blew two in a row. Now it’s almost over. But wait! They are the tenth seed and only one game back. It’s ALIVE! This is their season. Go to Dallas, with some of their players back, win there, then beat Philadelphia, then beat the hapless Giants…and they likely get in! Yes, Jim Mora: “Playoffs!” But now reality: WFT lost nearly their entire secondary today as three DB’s are out. So this is a tough bet. Somehow, someway, Ron Rivera keeps these game close. When was the last time Dallas blew somebody out? I’ll take the ten with images of Jim Mora dancing through my head. Pick: WFT +10.5


Fish (-2.5) at Saints

This is my best bet and the easiest money on the bet card. The Fins have won six straight, they are in the hunt, and the Saints have no players. They are starting their third string QB, Ian Book from Notre Dame. I could live with that, but the whole team is out, including half the coaches. This is a disaster for New Orleans and this game is a joke if you are a Saints fan. It’s more of the NFL suits saying, “Look at us, we take the Omni-scam seriously! Sean Peyton’s got a runny nose! We all wear masks in our SUV’s with no one else in the car!” Saints got screwed by the virtue signalers.
So this all leads to a Fins win in the Big Easy. Pick: Fish -2.5

Merry Christmas! Let’s go Brandon!

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John Fredericks is the publisher and editor-in-chief of The Virginia Star. He is also the host of The John Fredericks Show weekdays on NewsTalk WJFN 100.5 FM and 820 AM.
Photo “Buffalo Bills” By All Pro-Reels. CC BY 2.0.




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