Republicans Flip Seven Seats and the Virginia House Majority

Virginia Republicans retook the House of Delegates by protecting their incumbents and flipping seven seats, giving them a 52-48 majority, according to unofficial election results. Those flips included some predictable results. Otto Wachsmann defeated Delegate Roslyn Tyler (D-Sussex). Republicans won in four out of five competitive Virginia Beach races. Mike Cherry protected Republican control of outgoing Delegate Kirk Cox’s (R-Colonial Heights) district.

Republicans also pulled off some surprises. A.C. Cordoza has apparently defeated Delegate Martha Mugler (D-Hampton) 49.68 percent to 48.70 percent — a nail biting result since mail-in ballots can still come in.

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New Polls, Ads, and a Stunt from The Lincoln Project Point to a Nail-Biting Finish for Gubernatorial Race

GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin crept past Democrat Terry McAuliffe in polling averages on Friday, thanks to a Fox poll that showed the Republican ahead by eight points, well outside the three point margin of error. A Washington Post poll released Friday showed a tighter race, with Youngkin trailing McAuliffe by one point. Youngkin now leads the Real Clear Politics polling average by a hair — 0.9 percentage points. That’s setting Virginians up for a nail-biter on Tuesday evening, but depending on how close the results are, the winner might not be clear for days, since mail-in-ballots can be counted if they’re received by noon on Friday.

“Youngkin has as good a shot as we’ve seen in a decade. Also, attorney general tends to run two-to-three points ahead of governor for us,” Prince William County GOP Vice-Chair Willie Deutsch said. “I’m confident we have a legit shot but I wouldn’t put much money on anyone.”

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Money Keeps Pouring into Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race

Virginia’s gubernatorial candidates together raised $28.3 million in the first three weeks of October. Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe raised $12.9 million, with $1.9 million cash on hand. GOP candidate Glenn Youngkin raised $15.4 million, with nearly $7.9 million cash on hand at the end of the reporting period, according to The Virginia Public Access Project. Youngkin’s fundraising includes another $3.5 million in self-loans, for a total $20 million that he has loaned himself throughout the campaign.

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Youngkin Draws Thousands in Blue-Leaning Richmond Suburb

GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin stopped in Henrico on the first day of his Win with Glenn Bus Tour on Saturday evening. In his speech, attorney general candidate Delegate Jason Miyares (R-Virginia Beach) touted the need for reform in Virginia’s parole board, while Youngkin focused on his goal to lower the cost of living with a list of top economic priorities. But education took the front seat in both candidates’ speeches.

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Virginia State Senator Bryce Reeves Seeking Congressional Nomination to Challenge Rep. Abigail Spanberger

State Senator Bryce Reeves (R-Spotsylvania) is running for the GOP nomination for Virginia’s seventh congressional district. The region is considered a swing district and Republicans nationally expect to do well in the 2022 midterm congressional elections. The nominee will likely challenge incumbent Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA-07), who has warned her party about the risks to moderates caused by progressive messaging and policy.

“Under President Trump our economy was humming, people were working, and government did not dominate or intrude in our lives and livelihood. But under Joe Biden and Abigail Spanberger, an intrusive, progressive government is failing us, badly. Spanberger has failed to make the Seventh District what it should be – the best place to work, live, and raise a family,” Reeves said in a Friday press release.

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Delegate Wendy Gooditis Facing Serious Challenge from Republican Newcomer Nick Clemente

Virginia House District 10 is one of Republicans’ best chances to flip a House seat in the election; Republicans hope to retake the majority by winning a net six seats. The district includes part of Loudoun County, where the local school board has become a battleground and a national bellweather for the GOP’s new messaging on education. Statewide politicians have made repeated stops in the area, and GOP challenger Nick Clemente and Delegate Wendy Gooditis (D-Clarke) have together raised over $2 million, placing the district number one among the 100 House seats for fundraising, according to The Virginia Public Access Project.

“I think Gooditis is probably the second most likely Democrat to lose in the House,” CNalysis Executive Director Chaz Nuttycombe said. “I think Nick Clemente is definitely the strongest recruit that the GOP has going up against the Democrats.”

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Emerson College Poll Has Youngkin Down One Percent Against McAuliffe

A new Nexstar/Emerson College poll conducted at the beginning of October has GOP gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin one point behind Democrat Terry McAuliffe, 48 percent to 49 percent. A Fox News poll conducted at the end of September found 48 percent support for McAuliffe and 44 percent support for Youngkin.

“The new poll by Emerson demonstrates clearly that all the momentum is on Glenn Youngkin’s side and he is poised to win this race in Virginia on November 2,” said The Virginia Star’s Publisher, radio talk show host John Fredricks.

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Another Election Analysis Firm Shifts Rating to Show a More Competitive Virginia Gubernatorial Race

Inside Elections updated their Virginia gubernatorial race rating Wednesday, shifting from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

“Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are concerned about President Joe Biden’s drag on the race and about the lack of urgency on the Democratic side,” Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales wrote. “The public polling points to a very competitive race. McAuliffe is ahead of Youngkin by three points in both the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, neither of which have changed much in the last six weeks.”

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Redistricting: Draft Virginia Senate Map Highlights Different Definitions of ‘Fair’

Capitol of the Commonwealth of Virginia

A new working draft of a Virginia Senate redistricting map is highlighting the question of what creating a fair map means. The working map was hammered out on Saturday in a closed-door meeting between the Democratic and Republican co-chairs, Democratic and Republican legal teams, and Democratic and Republican map-drawers.

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Despite a Slim Lead in Virginia Gubernatorial Race, New PPP Poll Should Have Democrats ‘Fearing for Their Lives’ Expert Says

A new University of Mary Washington (UMW) poll of 1,000 Virginia adults found Terry McAuliffe leading with 43 percent, Glenn Youngkin with 38 percent, and Liberation Party candidate Princess Blanding at two percent. Among the 528 likely voters in the poll, Youngkin gained ten points, reaching 48 percent, while McAuliffe and Blanding stayed at 43 percent and two percent, respectively. But elections forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe said that the big story is the Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll released Tuesday that had McAuliffe leading Youngkin 45 to 42 percent; it surveyed 875 Virginia voters on September 17 and 18 with a 3.3 percent margin of error. It did not include Blanding.

“The one big exclamation point that should be having Dems say, ‘Oh s–t, oh f–k, oh s–t, oh f–k,’ is the PPP poll that came out. That had McAuliffe up by three. PPP is a very Democrat-leaning pollster,” he said. “Their polls usually overestimate Democrats by a few points.”

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Western Virginia, Southside Lost Population from 2010 to 2020 According to 2020 Census Data

The U.S. Census Bureau released 2020 Census data on August 12; a key takeaway from the data is that metro areas across the U.S. are growing, but many counties are seeing their population decrease.

“Many counties within metro areas saw growth, especially those in the south and west. However, as we’ve been seeing in our annual population estimates, our nation is growing slower than it used to,” Census Bureau Senior Demographer Marc Perry said in a press release.

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Governor’s Race Draws Record-Breaking June Fundraising; McAuliffe Out-Raises Youngkin

Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe have already raised a combined $40 million, according to new finance data through June, reported by the Virginia Public Access Project. A VPAP graphic shows that previous years through 2001, previous fundraising through June never reached $20 million. The June period is the first reporting period after the parties nominated their candidates.

Due to $12 million in personal loans, Youngkin out-raised McAuliffe in the January through May period. But McAuliffe’s June fundraising beat Youngkin. McAuliffe raised about $7.5 million in June, while Youngkin raised about $3.6 million.

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McAuliffe Fundraises Off FiveThirtyEight Blog ‘Warning’ of GOP Gubernatorial Victory as Trump Supports Youngkin Again

Terry McAuliffe, Glenn Youngkin and Donald Trump

Expectations for Virginia’s gubernatorial race have stayed stable – multiple experts rate the race as Lean Democrat. Still, Terry McAuliffe’s campaign is fundraising off of a June 7 FiveThirtyEight article that argues the GOP has a chance.

“With FEC reports releasing this week, there’s a lot going on, but we had to reach out with this news. Analysts at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight are saying that Virginia is ‘the GOP’s best shot at flipping a Governorship in 2021,'” a Monday McAuliffe email states.

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