by John Fredericks
Batting .500 is great if you’re a baseball hitter. Not so much if you are picking football games against the spread. After 10 picks, we are an unimpressive 5-5, and our best bets are 1-1. So we still have our stake available, minus the vig, which is typically 10 percent. So if you bet $100 on each of the ten playoffs games we touted, you would now be down $50. Easy to make up. Now get ready to go 2-0 this weekend.
Sunday Conference Championships
Packers -3 over Bucs Best Bet
The classic matchup: Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady. This is it for Brady, who got a gift last week with four Saints turnovers. While Brady did make some key throws when it counted, remember he went 0-5 on his first 5 possessions and the Bucs scored from short fields on the first three turnovers. It’s unlikely that level of good fortune will follow Brady and Tampa Bay into Lambeau.
On the flip side, the Packers are hitting now on all cylinders, and while the Bucs D is for real – and to be reckoned with—Green Bay has too many weapons, including an explosive running game. Their defense is not getting them the win, but it’s adequate enough to put pressure on the 43-year old to cause headaches.
The Pack is back. Lay the field goal and don’t worry about it. If Rodgers takes his time, and takes what the Bucs give him, he’ll put up 28. I love Green Bay here.
Packers Minus 3 – BEST BET
Chiefs over Bills -3
Patrick Mahomes will play. Let me repeat- Patrick Mahomes will play. There is a ton of Bills money floating around, and with Mahomes status in doubt, this game is 3 in lieu of the real line, which should be 6. This is called a bookmakers underlay- books are stuck- they had to post a line early and now can’t move it. My sources tell me Vegas is overwhelmed with Bills money – by a three to one scale. That means the public is betting Buffalo big.
But the public usually loses. Have you ever seen or heard of a sports book or bookmaker going broke? No, the house always wins. Public always loses in Vegas. What stays is Vegas—is usually your money.
While Buffalo played a great game last Saturday night, remember it took a pick-six to seal the deal, as the one-dimensional phony-baloney Ravens offense was driving for a tying TD (yeah, they danced on my Titans logo-they had it coming).
Chiefs at Arrowhead with Mahones doing crazy plays he draws up in the dirt. I bet Kansas City. Go ahead and beat them at home.
Chiefs Minus 3
Have fun, make money and play responsibly!
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John Fredericks, Publisher and Editor In Chief, The Virginia Star.
Photo “Tom Brady” by All-Pro Reels. CC BY 2.0.