Former Carlyle CEO Glenn Youngkin is the Republican Party of Virginia’s nominee for governor. His win is a surprise since many pundits said that lower-than-expected turnout in Saturday’s convention meant that Youngkin’s base had collapsed. Instead, Youngkin took an early lead in the first round of counting of ranked-choice votes. Although it took six rounds of counting and all of Monday to confirm his win, Youngkin consistently stayed in the lead. In the last round Youngkin carried 54.71 percent of weighted votes to Pete Snyder’s 45.29 percent.
“I am prepared to lead, excited to serve and profoundly humbled by the trust the people have placed in me,” Youngkin said in a press release. “Virginians have made it clear that they are ready for a political outsider with proven business experience to bring real change in Richmond.”
Youngkin’s win was powered by first-choice support across the state and in both rural and urban regions thought to be strongholds for other candidates. He took multiple counties in northern Virginia, Appalachia, southwest Virginia, southside, greater Richmond, and eastern Virginia. Senator Amanda Chase (R-Chesterfield) came in third, then Delegate Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights), Sergio de la Peña, Peter Doran, and Octavia Johnson.
The Virginia Public Access Project has a helpful graphic breaking down each round of ballots. Starting in round three after Johnson and Doran were eliminated with less than one percent of a vote combined, the votes were:
- Youngkin 33.05 percent / 4,149 weighted votes
- Snyder 25.89 percent / 3,250 weighted votes
- Chase 20.87 percent / 2,620 weighted votes
- Cox 13.95 percent / 1,706 weighted votes
- De la Peña 6.61 percent / 830 votes
- Youngkin 34.51 percent / 4,333 weighted votes
- Snyder 27.9 percent / 3,503 weighted votes
- Chase 22.77 percent / 2,860 weighted votes
- Cox 14.81 percent / 1,860 weighted votes
- Youngkin 42.31 percent / 5,311 weighted votes
- Snyder 32.49 percent / 4,078 weighted votes
- Chase 25.21 percent / 3,164 weighted votes
- Youngkin 54.71 percent / 6,868 weighted votes
- Snyder 45.29 percent / 5,686 weighted votes
Even though Youngkin’s lead was clear from the beginning of counting, his win was made all-but-certain with Cox’s elimination. Youngkin picked up 978 weighted votes from Cox voters, while Snyder only picked up 575. After Chase’s elimination, Youngkin and Snyder split the Chase votes, but 1,851 Chase ballots (not the same as votes) were discarded since the delegates made no choice after Chase.
Some reporting credits Youngkin’s win to charisma and cash which will be helpful for the struggling RPV. Others say that’s not the whole story.
“Disappointed in the post election stories out today — none of which mention where Youngkin got so many people to file to support him over a month ago,” pundit Ben Tribbett tweeted. “It wasn’t some secret — his campaign was driven by evangelicals.“
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