by Shaun Kenney
Two new polls today in the Virginia gubernatorial race between Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe (D) and Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin (R) both showing McAuliffe to have a significant lead over his rival.
First and foremost, the CNU Wason/AARP poll showing McAuliffe with a 50-41 lead over Youngkin:
McAuliffe is doing particularly well among women (55% to 36%) and younger voters (52% to 34%), while Youngkin has very solid support from the Republican base (95%). Regionally, Youngkin is strongest in South/Southwestern Virginia (53% to 37%), while McAuliffe does well in Northern Virginia (59% to 33%), the Richmond area (48% to 40%) and Hampton Roads (52% to 41%).
So how much of this is name ID and how much of this is residuals from the 2017 environment?
At present, McAuliffe has been spending gobs of money tying Youngkin to Trump — in effect making the Republican challenger the de facto incumbent in an environment where the Virginia elections are used as a barometer against the present occupant of the White House.
Given the horrific events in Afghanistan — as of this writing, 12 US troops and over 60 Afghans killed — after a bomb attack at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, the question still remains rather statewide Democrats will feel the pain of Biden’s international blundering.
Some of the answers are in the nature of both the CNU and VCU Wilder polling, where in the latter example they polled adults — not likely or registered voters, but adults — and in the CNU poll they treated likely voters as those who voted in 2 of the last 4 elections.
That’s not a likely voter, kiddo.
For the crosstabs and other bits and pieces of the CNU Wason/AARP poll just click here.
Crooked Media: McAuliffe +6 Over Youngkin
Meanwhile, yet another left-leaning polling outfit has decided to delve into the race with yet another poll. The end result? McAuliffe with a 6 point lead over Youngkin, with 2A issues and immigration driving the GOP faithful and Critical Race Theory (CRT) pushing many independents back to the center-right:
More interesting in this poll is that Trump and Biden voters are staying within their respective camps, with just 7% of Biden supporters having heartburn and coming back to the GOP fold and 5% of Republican voters are supporting McAuliffe over Youngkin.
COVID and voter suppression (sic) remain huge drivers of McAuliffe’s base, while 2A rights and immigration are the primary concerns of Youngkin voters — the former being something Youngkin has been utterly quiet upon; the latter something far beyond the power of the Executive Mansion to control.
Oh — Donald Trump’s favorable ratings in this poll? 56%.
Joe Biden’s? 46%.
Insofar as the name ID question goes? The electorate seems to have a general idea as to what who McAuliffe and Youngkin are and have formed their opinions accordingly:
So much for the name identification argument.
Where Things Stand: Is Late August Too Late?
But there are some interesting tidbits to pull out of this now that we are a bit further in the weeds.
- First and foremost, CRT and “Defunding The Police” are non-starters with independents. McAuliffe has already shifted his messaging in recent weeks in order to smooth over any independents who do their own research, stripping any mention of equity from his campaign website.
- Embracing Trump is a far better proposition than embracing Biden. Trump at 56% is entirely due to Afghanistan; it just isn’t enough to give Youngkin coattails (i.e. no one is blaming statewide candidates for overseas catastrophes).
- Second Amendment issues may be pivotal come October as abortion becomes center stage in the wake of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health. Don’t count on abortion remaining too low on the totem pole once the US Supreme Court hears what could be a landmark case that could overturn Roe v. Wade and send the question back to state governments.
- Undecided voters don’t want to hear about Voter ID. They want to hear about how either candidate is going to tackle COVID, jumpstart the economy, and tackle corruption — the eternal bugbear of every independent.
- Republican voters are still supremely concerned about what McAuliffe is going to do with regards to the Second Amendment. Turns out the 2A Sanctuary Movement never went away despite the pandemic and several months of rioting by BLM/Antifa terrorists.
- No one actually cares about January 6th. It’s not as if it was five months of rioting in three dozen cities causing billions of dollars in damages nationwide, harming hundreds of LEOs and killing two dozen people in the pursuit of a political agenda — up to and including the shutdown of Washington D.C. in the event Trump was announced the winner of the 2020 elections.
- Youngkin has yet to make the case why he should be governor. McAuliffe Bad (TM) and we get that — but no one knows what Youngkin is willing to bleed for. Until we get a Contract With Virginia (HINT) or discover Youngkin’s Big Idea (also TM’d), voters are left to wonder. Terry is more than happy to define people in the absence of a compelling narrative.
There’s a magic sauce here, but folks are still hoping to find out who Glenn Youngkin actually is and what he stands for. Not the high gloss PR or the talking points — and not the baby kissing at events.
What is Youngkin willing to bleed for? In the absence of a narrative, McAuliffe will paint the absolute worst picture he can. Voters will simply be left to their own devices, and if events in Afghanstan aren’t convincing enough, then even fear of the left will not be enough to push independents and centrists back into the GOP fold.
Either way, we can now dispense with the myth that the race is statistically tied. It isn’t — not by a long shot. Youngkin is on the wrong side of the margin of error at best. I’d ballpark it at 5-6 points behind McAuliffe.
Insurmountable? Not at all.
But the clock is ticking and early voting is coming around the corner sooner than folks realize.
In the immortal words of the great political analyst Bob Dylan by way of Jimi Hendrix (and Dave Matthews):
You and I, we’ve been through that, and this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late…
Is The RPV Lawsuit To Get McAuliffe DQ’d Going To Work?
No — the courts will say that the will of the voters precludes any irregularities in the filing process per a 2007 precedent.
Is Biden Going To Take Any Responsibility for Afghanistan?
Of course not.
Don’t even bother watching today’s press conference. Unless your blood pressure is really low.
Kissinger On Why The US Failed
Simply put, we shifted the mission away from killing people and breaking things and turned it into a nation building exercise.
[A]s the Taliban was fleeing the country, we lost strategic focus. We convinced ourselves that ultimately the re-establishment of terrorist bases could only be prevented by transforming Afghanistan into a modern state with democratic institutions and a government that ruled constitutionally. Such an enterprise could have no timetable reconcilable with American political processes.
Read it all.
Are We Heading Back Into Shutdowns? Most Likely…
Fredericksburg City Schools just announced a return to virtual learning effective immediately until 07 September.
The question becomes whether Governor Ralph Northam (D) is going fob the tough call onto localities for a good 2-3 weeks before breaking everyone’s back at once — or is Northam going to actually impose another lockdown before the November elections.
Place your bets accordingly.
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Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.
Background Photo “Virginia Capitol” by Martin Kraft. CC BY-SA 3.0.
