Tim Parrish, the state director of Americans for Prosperity (AFP) – Virginia, predicted that Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has a “fighting chance” to beat either former Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA-07) or Representative Bobby Scott (D-VA-03) in the 2025 race for governor as polls show the Republican statistically tied with both candidates.
Parrish made the remarks during a Friday appearance on “The John Fredericks Show,” offering his analysis after The Virginia Star publisher John Fredericks suggested Earle-Sears has slim odds of repeating the 2021 victory that saw Governor Glenn Youngkin become the first Republican elected governor of Virginia since 2010.
“I actually think that our Lieutenant Governor may have a fighting chance to really take the helm here in Virginia,” said Parrish.
“We’ve got to evaluate what both sides are going to represent, but we can look at the voting record of Abigail Spanberger and Bobby Scott, who are potentially going to be, either one, the nominee on that side. We’ve got to look at their voting record and see, is that the best thing for the commonwealth?”
The AFP director said AFP will complete “a very extensive process” before formally declaring support for a candidate, but suggested the House records of Spanberger and Scott will play a prominent role during the gubernatorial campaign.
“2025 is going to be a very interesting year,” Parrish told Fredericks. “Hopefully we have a leader who cares about the commonwealth, and wants to see the commonwealth continue to advance, and continue the legacy and the forward trajectory of Governor Youngkin.”
Parrish commented on Earle-Sears’ political odds amid the Friday release of a Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey that found the Republican narrowly leading Scott but trailing Spanberger with a wider gap that remains within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error.
The pollsters found Earle-Sears would win 46 percent of the commonwealth’s voters against 44 percent who would vote for Scott, who is rumored to be considering a run for governor, while 9 percent were undecided. It also showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 47 percent to 44 percent, with 9 percent of voters undecided.
It followed the release of an Emerson College poll on Thursday, which found Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by just 1 percent in a survey with a 3 percent margin of error.
Both surveys showed Youngkin remains broadly popular among Virginia voters, with the Mason-Dixon pollsters reporting 58 percent approve of the governor’s job performance, and the Emerson survey revealing 48 percent hold a favorable view of the governor.
Youngkin is precluded from seeking a second consecutive term and formally endorsed Earle-Sears’ bid for governor in November.
Despite Youngkin’s high favorability and approval ratings, after Fredericks suggested to Parrish that Youngkin is already planning a presidential campaign for 2028, the AFP spokesman told the host, “I don’t know the governor’s plans and certainly have no insight into what he plans to do.”
Watch Parrish’s full appearance on “The John Fredericks Show”:
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
