Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA-07) and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears are statistically tied in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia, according to polling released Thursday.
The Emerson College poll of Virginia voters found Spanberger narrowly leading with the support of 42 percent of the commonwealth, but Earle-Sears statistically tied at 41 percent of support, with the pollsters reporting a margin of error of 3 percent.
An additional 13 percent of respondents said they were undecided about their 2025 vote for governor, while 4 percent said they prefer another candidate.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement that Earle-Sears polls best among male voters, while Spanberger has a similar lead among women.
Pollsters did not press the undecided respondents about additional candidates, but the survey was released amid reports that Spanberger may face a challenge from Representative Bobby Scott (D-VA-03) for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination despite the former CIA employee leaving her position in Congress to pursue the Democratic nomination for governor under as a moderate member of the party.
Concerns about Spanberger’s reputation as a moderate were highlighted in December by former Governor Doug Wilder, who suggested a lack of Democratic “solidarity” around one candidate could result in Republicans retaining control of the executive office.
“I talk to a lot of people who don’t want to repeat what just occurred in the presidential election,” Wilder said last month. He questioned, “What does Spanberger bring to the table that would attract all of the constituent parts of the party that would be necessary for her to win?”
The Virginia Constitution precludes Governor Glenn Youngkin from seeking a second consecutive term, and the governor recently endorsed both Earle-Sears and Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares, who was previously rumored to be considering challenging Earle-Sears.
Youngkin said in a statement posted to social media, “Winsome, Jason, and I ran as a team and we have served Virginians as a team,” and said Earle-Sears and Miyares “will once again lead the Republican team as candidates for Governor and Attorney General.”
The early support from Youngkin could prove beneficial, as the Emerson College poll found 48 percent of voters in the commonwealth continue to hold a favorable view of the governor.
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Abigail Spanberger” by Abigail Spanberger. Background Photo “Virginia Capitol” by Ron Cogswell. CC BY 2.0.
