Control of the commonwealth’s General Assembly is up for grabs, with 42 percent of voters choosing Democrats, 41 percent choosing Republicans, according to a poll conducted by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership September 28 through October 11 of 800 likely voters.
The poll carries a 4-percentage point margin of error, putting the battle for the state house at a virtual tie.
Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is halfway through his one-term, and he ramped up his political operation, primarily through his Spirit of Virginia PAC, to bolster Republican candidates for both chambers of the legislature, where Republicans control the House of Delegates, 52-48, and Democrats control the State Senate, 22-18. All seats are contested in the November 7 election.
Wason Center found in the poll that the governor comes into the campaign’s final month with 55 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of the former Carlyle Group co-CEO. Only 41 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
If Youngkin succeeds in securing GOP control of both chambers, it means the governor can break open the bottleneck Democrats have created in the Senate. It will also be an achievement of national import because Youngkin will have flipped the script on the prevailing narrative, which had the commonwealth as a purple state trending blue.
Here’s the truth: Virginia Dems support no limits on abortion. pic.twitter.com/AKV4dYgeau
— Team Youngkin – Spirit of Virginia (@TeamYoungkin) October 10, 2023
The achievement would also raise Youngkin’s national profile such that he becomes a credible challenger to President Donald J. Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.
One of the critical factors in the campaign is the governor’s proposal to ban abortions after 15 weeks, approximately the point when unborn children feel pain.
Youngkin is virtually alone as a Republican politician seeking to go on the offensive on the issue, especially in Virginia, where Democrats have campaigned against legal protections for the unborn with near impunity.
The Wason Center poll found that 63 percent of Republicans support the 15-week ban and 20 percent of Democrats. Only 26 percent of black voters support the 15-week ban, compared to 44 percent of white voters.
Another factor is voter enthusiasm, which the center said is breaking in favor of Democrats:
Voter Enthusiasm, the Generic Ballot: Traditionally off-year elections without a statewide or presidential candidate have shown lower voter turnout among Democrats. Despite this, our survey indicates that Democrats have a marginal enthusiasm advantage compared to Republicans; 70% of Democratic likely voters indicate they have given the upcoming General Assembly elections either a lot of thought (37%) or some thought (33%) compared to 61% of Republicans (30% a lot of thought, 31% some thought), and 65% of Independents.
This survey finds Democrats hold a 1-point advantage (42% to 41%) on the “generic ballot” question, which asks voters if they will cast their state legislative ballots for the Republican or Democratic Party’s candidates. This margin is exceptionally slim and well within the survey’s margin of error, suggesting that control of the General Assembly is genuinely up for grabs.
The poll sample had a roughly equal partisan participation with 34 percent Democrats, 28 percent Republicans and 33 percent Independents.
The Wason Center is nested at Christopher Newport University, Newport News, and was founded by Harry Wason and his wife Judy, who was a senior staffer for President Ronald W. Reagan and senators John Warner and Paul Trible.
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Neil W. McCabe is a staff reporter for The Virginia Star.
Photo “Glenn Youngkin” by Glenn Youngkin CC2.0.
