Cook Political Report Archives

Cook Political Report Now Says Montana Senate Race Is ‘Leaning Republican’

September 13, 2024 Daily Caller News Foundation

Republican candidate Tim Sheehy is now poised to dethrone Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester for Montana’s Senate seat, according to a Cook Political Report rating from Thursday.

Cook Political Report, a leading nonpartisan election and campaign watcher, shifted its rating for the competitive senate seat from toss up to leaning Republican. Sheehy has consistently led Tester by a few points over the last few months, with the latest findings swinging even more in the Republican challenger’s favor.

America Is Undergoing a Massive Population Shift

December 25, 2023 Virginia Star Staff

Democrat-run states are still losing population, new Census Bureau data reveal, a development that could have electoral implications when the government reapportions congressional districts in 2030.

Oregon, California, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania, all states with Democratic governors and Democrat-controlled state legislatures, lost between 0.01% and 0.52% of their population between July 2022 and July 2023, according to the Census Bureau. Left-leaning states experienced similar declines in the lead-up to the 2020 Census, which led to them losing seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College, an outcome that could occur again in 2030 if current trends persist.

Analysis: Democratic Retirements Could Help the House GOP Grow Its Majority in 2024

December 3, 2023December 2, 2023 Virginia Star Staff

House Republicans appear to be in a better position to capitalize off of a wave of congressional retirements, as there are more Democratic-held open seats in swing districts that pose an opportunity for the GOP to flip in 2024.

There are currently 31 House members who are not seeking another term in the lower chamber, including 20 Democrats and 11 Republicans — nearly all of whom hold seats that are considered safe for the GOP. Four Democratic-held open seats in battleground districts in Michigan, Virginia and California are most likely to flip red, while several other seats are also up for grabs by the GOP in 2024, according to political analysts and electoral rankings.

Pollsters Shift Five House Seats Toward Dems After SCOTUS Ruling

June 11, 2023 Virginia Star Staff

The Cook Political Report updated the ratings of five House races across several states in 2024 on Thursday, shifting them towards Democrats after the Supreme Court ruled against Alabama’s redistricting plan.

The Court struck down Alabama’s GOP-drawn Congressional map for the 2022 midterm elections on Thursday, ruling in Allen v. Milligan that the was racially discriminatory and diluted African-American voting strength in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The decision’s implications mean that more House seats in Alabama are likely to be competitive in the 2024 election, with the Cook Political Report reflecting those changes in its ratings.

Commentary: The Top 10 U.S. Senate Races to Watch

November 8, 2022November 7, 2022 Admin

Americans will soon get to cast their first votes since the science–denying COVID mask and vaccine mandates, the second wave of COVID-related blowout spending and subsequent inflation, and the COVID-related school closures that allowed parents to see what the public schools are really teaching their boys and girls – including that they can choose whether they are boys or girls. With all of these matters implicitly on the ballot, how are things shaping up going into Election Day?

Starting with the House of Representatives, six months ago Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report projected “a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.” At the time, I responded, “While things could change over the next six months (although the cake is probably largely baked), a GOP gain of 30 to 40 House seats appears more likely at this stage of the contest than Walter’s projected GOP gain of 15 to 25 seats.”

Two Key Senate Races Moved in GOP’s Direction by Noted Election Handicapper Cook Political Report

February 28, 2022 Admin

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday shifted its forecasts for two 2022 Senate races in the direction of Republicans.

The report moved the North Carolina Senate race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr moved from “toss-up” to “likely Republican.” And moved the Colorado Senate race, in which Democrat Sen. Michael Bennet is seeking a third term, from “solid Democrat” into the “likely Democrat” catagory.

The North Carolina GOP primary is now a competitive race between former President Trump-endorsed Rep. Ted Budd, former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker, with (with Budd and McCrory currently deadlocked).

Another Election Analysis Firm Shifts Rating to Show a More Competitive Virginia Gubernatorial Race

October 1, 2021September 30, 2021 Eric Burk

Inside Elections updated their Virginia gubernatorial race rating Wednesday, shifting from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

“Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe has had a consistent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the commonwealth, but some Democratic strategists are concerned about President Joe Biden’s drag on the race and about the lack of urgency on the Democratic side,” Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales wrote. “The public polling points to a very competitive race. McAuliffe is ahead of Youngkin by three points in both the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, neither of which have changed much in the last six weeks.”

Virginia’s 5th Congressional District Race Eve of Election Day Update

November 3, 2020November 2, 2020 Jacob Taylor

Election week is finally here and the candidates vying for Virginia’s highly competitive 5th Congressional District are preparing for a busy yet momentous Tuesday.

On the eve of Election Day, both Bob Good (R) and Cameron Webb (D) are feeling confident in their odds of winning the race for a seat left vacant after freshman Representative Denver Riggleman (R-VA-05) lost in a Republican primary this summer.

Follow the Money: Where Big Dollars Are Flowing for Virginia Congressional Candidates

October 28, 2020October 27, 2020 Jacob Taylor

As the 2020 election season comes to an end and Virginia’s congressional candidates are making their last pushes to secure a better chance at winning, millions of dollars have already been poured into races by political action committees (PAC) and other organizations looking to influence the elections one way or another.

Those types of campaign funds are known as independent expenditures, meaning money that is spent without the coordination of a campaign or candidate and often result in attack ads primarily seen on social media or TV.

In New Jersey, Rep. Van Drew’s Democrat Challenger – Wife of Patrick Kennedy – Raises Money to Bail out Rapists and Defendants Charged with Terrorism, Kidnapping, Murder

August 17, 2020August 17, 2020 Neil W. McCabe

The leftwing Democrat running against Rep. Jefferson H. “Jeff” Van Drew (R.-N.J.) has put her money where her mouth is , and is raising money to bail out rapists and at least one defendant facing terror terrorism charges at the same time she is challenging the one-time Democrat, who switched parties after voting against impeaching President Donald Trump.